In Liars and Outliers, I use the metaphor of the Prisoner's Dilemma to exemplify the conflict between group interest and self-interest. There are a gazillion academic papers on the Prisoner's Dilemma from a good dozen different academic disciplines, but the weirdest dataset on real people playing the game is from a British game show called Golden Balls. In the final...... Read More
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GCHQ, the UK government's communications headquarters, has released two new -- well, 70 years old, but new to us -- cryptanalysis documents by Alan Turing. The papers, one entitled The Applications of Probability to Crypt, and the other entitled Paper on the Statistics of Repetitions, discuss mathematical approaches to code breaking. [...] According to the GCHQ mathematician, who identified himse... Read More
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If you've been reading this blog for a while, you know I don't think very highly of mathematical valuations of "risk." I think even less highly of the clowns in the financial sector who call security professionals "stupid" because we can't match their "five digit accuracy" for risk valuation. We all know how well those "five digit" models worked out. (And as you see from the last link, I was c... Read More
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